Friday, August 19, 2011

Is time up for Google Plus?

What do you think the future of Google Plus is? When it first came out, I got an early-ish invite, and plunged ahead into the alternative-to-Facebook social network scene. In some ways it was refreshing. I didn't have to de-friend my acquaintances from place ___ who I never talk to but always seem to show up on my Facebook feed. My friends who did add me on Google Plus were always sharing fascinating articles and were the savvy types I wanted to keep in contact with anyway.

In its early days (last month), Google Plus did seem to be the next big thing. I would get constant updates and lots of people adding me. Google Plus seemed to be doing really well and expanding quickly. (See this article from July, for example). Google Plus had a lot of gushing press about its new innovative  features.

But now I don't think the future looks so bright for Plus. Based on just a sample of one (me), I'm observing:
(1) No one is adding anyone to their Google Plus circles anymore. I've topped out at about 60 people who have added me. Contrast that to Facebook, where I've got on the order of 10 times that number.
(2) I'm not checking Google Plus regularly like I used to. It was fun for a while, but now I've realized that FB is a convenient place where pretty much all of my friends/acquaintances post stuff, rather than just a few of them. And who has time to check multiple social networking sites?

I'm guessing these trends are likely true for other people in my same demographic group as well. And a lot of other demographic groups (e.g., your mom who is still figuring out Facebook) will probably never try out Plus at all.

I therefore predict that Google Plus will go the way of all of the other competing social networking sites. There may be a few die-hards who stick it out at Google Plus, but I doubt there will be many. The only hope is that Google can establish for Plus some kind of niche (e.g., like LinkedIn has done). Perhaps Plus's niche is a sanctuary for FB haters. Sorry Google Plus, but you are to Dvorak as Facebook is to QWERTY*.

*This article would take issue with that comparison, arguing that Dvorak was never that great to start out with and arguments for its superiority mostly came from a small number of biased sources.

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